Mpox outbreak: How worried should we be about virus in the UK, is it the new Covid? Expert outlines risk

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The first case has already been detected in Europe 🏥
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) have declared a global health emergency following an outbreak of mpox in Africa.
  • There are four variants of the virus, Clade 1a, 1b and Clade 2a and 2b.
  • Clade 1 is behind the latest outbreak, whilst in 2022, Clade 2 caused the WHO to declare a global health emergency after mpox spread to 70 countries which had never had cases, including the UK.
  • Professor Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia explains what we need to know about the latest mpox outbreak - and if we should be worried.

The World Health Organisation has launched a global strategic preparedness and response plan following declaring a global health emergency due to an mpox outbreak in Africa.

Concerns over the rate the new variant Clade 1b is spreading have been growing after the first cases were detected outside Africa in Sweden and Thailand.

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The WHO plan will cover six months from September 2024 to February 2025 and will provide a “framework for public health preparedness and response to the mpox emergency.”

A woman infected with Mpox shows her arms at the Kamenge University Hospital's Mpox treatment centre in Bujumbura on August 22, 2024. (Photo: TCHANDROU NITANGA/AFP via Getty Images)A woman infected with Mpox shows her arms at the Kamenge University Hospital's Mpox treatment centre in Bujumbura on August 22, 2024. (Photo: TCHANDROU NITANGA/AFP via Getty Images)
A woman infected with Mpox shows her arms at the Kamenge University Hospital's Mpox treatment centre in Bujumbura on August 22, 2024. (Photo: TCHANDROU NITANGA/AFP via Getty Images) | AFP via Getty Images

This is not the first time WHO has declared a global health emergency for mpox, a similar situation was declared in 2022, when cases of the clade 2b variant spread to over 70 countries that had never previously had an infection - including the UK.

We sat down with Professor Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia to ask if we should be worried.

What is mpox?

Mpox is a “similar virus to smallpox”, Professor Hunter explained, adding that the infection “doesn’t cause the really severe disease that we saw with smallpox.”

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The infection has an incubation period of “about 10 days to two weeks”, but it is “sometimes a bit shorter”. Symptoms can begin with “generally feeling unwell or maybe having a fever”, with mpox “skin blisters that look exactly like smallpox blisters, but these days are similar to chicken pox” often appearing one to five days after the first symptoms.

Professor Hunter explained: “For most people it’s a fairly relatively mild infection that they will recover from on their own accord in a few days.” However, “some people go on to develop inflammation of the brain called encephalitis and some ultimately die of the infection.”

How is mpox spread?

There are four different variants of mpox. Clade 1a and 2a are “almost entirely acquired from contact with animals and usually primarily affects children” explained Professor Hunter.

Whilst Clade B, which is the variant that experts are concerned about about, originated in animals but “now is spreading person to person through sexual and intimate contact.”

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The last global outbreak was in 2022, with Clade 2b causing a big outbreak in many countries around the world, including in the UK. There is concern that the new variant, Clade 1b could do something simliar.

However Professor Hunter reassured that: “ I think we’re in a different place now to where we were in 2022.”

He continued: “The first thing is that the 2022 epidemic spread primarily in people who were part of sexual networks with very many partners. And that infection is still here. It’s been increasing in numbers over the year, in July we saw quite a jump in the number of cases from the Clade 2 infections, but we are still way below what they were in 2022.”

Adding: “The reason why I’m not convinced that the new Clade will spread dramatically in this population is that first of all a lot of people in that group will have already had the infection. And if you get one Clade you have a strong immunity to other Clades of mpox. And even if you didn’t, many people in that group will have actually had the vaccine two years ago.”

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Could there be cases of mpox in the UK?

Cases of mpox have already been detected outside of Africa, with Sweden confirming the first case in Europe on August 15. The patient had recently travelled to a country in Africa impacted by the outbreak.

Professor Hunter explained: “You can be pretty sure that there are cases already in other countries around the world and other countries in Europe. The question though, is, will that become a problem in these other countries?”

In the UK, cases of mpox linked to the Clade 2 variant that fuelled the outbreak in 2022 have continued, however there has been no official confirmation of any infections caused by the Clade 1 variant as of yet.

Professor Hunter continued: “It’s certainly a possibility that we’ve already got a case in the UK, or more cases than one, and I think it’s quite likely that we would have had an infection in this country. That doesn’t mean to say that that infection is necessarily spreading in the country.”

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Due to incubation period of the virus, it can take time for symptoms to appear, Professor Hunter explained that this means: “It could take three to four weeks from someone getting or catching an infection to them actually knowing that this is the new Clade.”

Is mpox the new Covid?

Mpox is not the new Covid, as authorities already know how to control and prevent the spread of the disease and have proper plans in place derived during the last global outbreak.

When asked if mpox could see the return of government restrictions or lockdowns, Professor Hunter said: “You can never say never with infectious diseases, but I would bet the house on the fact that this would never lead to a situation that would require the same sorts of restrictions we had in place for Covid.”

Is mpox life threatening?

Mpox can be life threatening in some cases, with Professor Hunter noting that if you catch the Clade 1 variant you are more likely to die compared to if you caught a clade 2. Professor Hunter explained: “The death rate in the Congo, where this new variant comes from is about three to four percent, but with good healthcare this can be reduced substantially.”

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If you think you have mpox what should you do?

The NHS define the risk of catching mpox in the UK as “low”. However if you develop symptoms of mpox or believe you have been exposed to the infection it’s important that you reach out to medical professionals.

If you are based in England or Wales you can call 111, or get in touch with your local sexual health clinic. For those based in Scotland it’s advised to contact your GP or local sexual health clinic, in Northern Ireland you should contact your local GUM clinic.

Professor Hunter adds: “If you believe you have been in contact with someone who has mpox it is not too late to get the vaccine. If you administer the vaccine within four days of contact you can still substantially reduce the likelihood of getting ill and even more the likelihood of getting severely ill.”

You can find out more about the signs and symptoms of mpox and whether you are eligible for the mpox vaccination programme at NHS.UK.

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